Hyper Local or Local Hype? ...a look through the inventory lens

For some investors I knew, Hyper-Local was always pronounced Hype-Local since the 'r' for revenue was missing. How on earth, they say, will anyone make money just delivering stuff at no margin while overpaying delivery boys and doling out coupons? I'm sure we've all done our doomsday reading on Food-Tech, e-Grocery, Home-Improvement and Local Logistics, and probably Hyper Local too. The aim of this post isn't naming all the many startups in trouble but to figure out why.

Some people ask if the early death of such ventures is a bad thing at all. A lot of startups and investors I know are celebrating the separation of the chaff from the wheat. Many food-tech startups, for them, had no 'tech' in them. They were helping people do on an app what they used to do on a phone call, e.g. explore menu options or order food. Many on-demand local-logistics people were just overpaying drivers and under-charging merchants in the hope their inflated orders are seen as traction by their investors. Grocery, similarly, is a tough game with notoriously thin margins. It took Ocado 15 years to deliver the first year of profits. Service aggregation has its own problems that prevent every business from becoming the oft-touted Uber-of-XYZ.

So, getting back to the point, what's the deal about Hyper-Local?

Let me make a very basic point. Inventory can be classified in many ways but a useful classification is on the scarcity axis, which translates into premium chargeable. One can have the following kinds of inventory on this logic:

• not-found elsewhere including rare, private-labels and exclusive inventory

• hard-to-find or hard-to-get elsewhere

• better-priced / faster delivery than elsewhere

• commodity inventory

Most delivery startups (sorry, hyper-local is what I meant) are just playing the third or fourth bucket, with a very thin reason-to-believe that they'll transit to the first two. What that means is that customers will use a provider today as long as no premiums are charged, and the moment that changes, the customers will just delete the app and revert to their default behavior (of ordering on phone, informal credit, month-end-billing etc) as will retailers (more on an earlier article by me), and the investor will be left high-and-dry while entrepreneurs will leave with small packets of moneys paid to themselves and good credentials to get another business funded. 

The last two buckets are red oceans. Even if one has an edge today, the slope will stay slippery. even if one goes directly to sub-distributors or the local wholesale market as these startups do, the advantage is a very small percentage.

Secondly, the true brand customers buy is a 'Maggi' or 'Amul Butter' (destination) and not a Grofers or Peppertap (journey). Most hyperlocal businesses are building for destination loyalty (read: apps) in a world of price-sensitive pre-planned purchases. Once users feel they're not getting a price advantage, they'll get antsy - they'll first disable notifications, and then delete the app altogether. The fact that one gets a branded carrybag from a deliveryman wearing a branded Tshirt isn't going to make anyone loyal. The fact that these guys turn up late with orders mixed up and frequently without change is just a further irritant.

The nemesis of hyperlocal isn't a supermarket or large mall or even a visit to the local kirana shop - the nemesis of hyperlocal is phone-ordering from a nearby kirana guy who knows you by name, prioritizes your order, doesn't mix up orders since he's in the trade for the last thirty years. It's a business that underpays its unorganized labor and doesn't give them T-Shirts and keeps them on their toes, that underweighs and doesn't pay all taxes and uses every trick in the trade to steal your pennies and yet make you feel great. And, remember, these businesses are strongly cash positive - so much so that they may not even know what valuation means, or even a P&L - they only understand cash.

Bottomline, the litmus test of hyperlocal in its present form shall be when the discount moneys get throttled. For then, the true-convenience buyers will remain. It will still be a sizable market, but maybe not as infinite as it is projected to be today. If there is a better source of inventory somewhere in the market, hyperlocal shall provide it consumer access. If there is better inventory that customers don't know about, hyperlocal can address that gap. Eventually, determinants of success shall include easy-to-use powerful technologies, control on product and service quality and the final challenge of jumping orbit to the first two buckets of unique or hard-to-find inventory.

[previously published in ET Retail on Dec 24, 2015]

The Changing World of a Shopkeeper

All of you have followed the developments around eCommerce, local commerce, daily-deals etc. as businesses. All these businesses to some or the other degree depend on the traditional shopkeeper as the supply source. eTail is probably the model that depends on him least, because it can go directly to the source, the manufacturer or the large distributor, but it still needs shopkeepers in some categories where the aggregation of demand, like in auto-accessories, happens at the shop-level. Or when one needs services like installation that the shopkeeper can provide. For local commerce, the shopkeeper is the backbone, as it is for many businesses for daily-deals.

Truth be told, most traditional shopkeepers think of themselves as being in the business of moving boxes and managing cash. They haven't really thought of themselves as entities for digitizing supply, taking pictures and writing product descriptions. They also don't think of themselves as being in the business of delivering goods, though most of them do it for some percentage of their orders. Most of them don't have MIS or ERP systems and they manage inventory through heuristics. They don't know how to manage feedback on digital platforms. There are therefore significant challenges in them making the transition to the supplier digital businesses will look for. And it's a lot more.

A traditional shopkeeper may make his money in fairly unstructured ways. He would buy in bulk on credit or against a cash discount for volumes he has back-of-envelope (or back-of-hand) calculations for. He can then weigh goods approximately (erring on the side of less sometimes), pack it in an old newspaper, have it delivered through a person who may be below legal age or statutory salary, do pure cash transactions where he does not provide a receipt or pay taxes, or through credit where he has some leeway on the month-end calculation, and so on and forth. One is not saying adulteration or substituting lower-grade loose commodities is a norm but that too is possible. Each one of these activities adds up to margin. The result is a profitable business that loses value once it gets 'organized'.

And that is where a big problem exists.

Today digital businesses are not only expecting this person to agree to tax scrutiny or accept credit cards, or to install a POS software and MIS, but - what is more important to keep in mind - we're also expecting behavior change, which, as all of us know, isn't easy. A shopkeeper today may be happy getting 5% additional sales through local commerce, but one day he may not deliver his order and not even be apologetic about it because in his earlier world, it was okay to tell the customer he forgot, or his delivery boy came back late from lunch, or that the electricity went off, or the bicycle had a flat tyre.

Online businesses are in the business of structuring this market, of making promises that are kept and of assuring quality and timelines. We must remember the chain is as strong as the weakest link. If we create a middle-layer that will cover-up for what may go wrong, we risk becoming a different business - one that carries inventory of its own, has its own delivery, answers queries on behalf of shopkeepers and resolves problems on behalf of customers and eventually costs more than the efficiency we are seeking to create. So that not being a sustainable option, the other workable solutions involve handholding, education and behavior change.

And that takes a while. When we set up companies that depend on the shopkeeper keeping his promise, this is something we should keep in mind.

[note, this has been previously published in ET-Retail on July 1, 2015]